Chapel Hill, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

161
FXUS62 KRAH 150533
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
133 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will extend across the southern Appalachians and
Carolinas ahead of a moisture-starved, backdoor cold front that will
move south through the area tonight. Canadian high pressure will
follow and build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Tuesday...

Aloft, the closed mid-level low off the mid-Atlantic coast should
continue to progress ewd over the Atlantic through tonight, with the
sub-tropical ridge gradually building in from the west. Similarly at
the surface, the closed low off the NC coast will continue ewd out
over the Atlantic through tonight, with high pressure building in
from the NW in its wake. Nly flow will prevail. Dry weather is
expected to prevail. While the wrn Piedmont may remain sunny to
mostly sunny today, cloud cover  increase across the rest of the
area through the early afternoon. Cloud cover should decrease as the
low moves away from the area late this aft/evening, becoming mostly
clear by tonight. Intermittent wind gusts into the teens are
expected today, mainly in the east, tapering off after sunset. With
the lingering cloud cover in the east today, expect a similar
temperature gradient from W-E as yesterday, with highs ranging from
mid/upper 70s west to mid/upper 60s east. Lows tonight should again
be in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM Tuesday...

Low pressure will be over eastern Canada Wednesday morning, with a
cold front extending to the west through New England, Pennsylvania,
and into the central Plains. The cold front will move southeast
during the day, paralleling the I-85 corridor by sunset Wednesday.
There will be very little moisture along the front, barely enough to
produce any clouds, let alone any precipitation. With mostly sunny
skies across the entire area, Wednesday`s high temperatures should
be more uniform than today`s high temperatures, with all locations
in the 70s. Temperatures will be slightly colder Wednesday night
behind the front, although it will take until Thursday for a more
noticeable change in temperatures. Wednesday night`s lows will range
from the mid 40s to the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 PM Tuesday...

* Next chance of rain will be Sunday into Monday associated with a
  cold frontal passage.

* Below average temperatures will warm to above normal over the
  weekend, dropping back to near normal to start the work week.

After the backdoor cold front passes through the region on
Wednesday, high pressure will build over the region. This will allow
dry and mostly sunny conditions to prevail Thursday through
Saturday. Thursday should be the coldest day of the period, with
highs expected in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows dipping into the
upper 30s to low 40s as good radiational cooling is expected
overnight. Friday should have similar high temperatures as the high
pressure system moves through the region, with lows increasing
slightly into the 40s. By Saturday, maximum temperatures should be
in the 70s regionwide, with lows in the low-to-mid 50s, perhaps the
upper 40s in the coolest spots.

A cold front is expected to approach and push through the region
Sunday into Monday. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible
with the fropa. The best forcing looks to be to our north and less
than 500 J/kg of CAPE is expected, so stronger storms do not look to
be likely. Additionally, ensemble means are generally showing less
than 0.25 inch of rain from this system across the area, with the
90th percentiles also only showing around 0.5-0.75 inch. Sunday`s
temperatures look to have highs in the mid-to-upper 70s before the
front moves through, with lows dipping into the upper 40s to mid
50s. After the front moves through, high pressure should build back
into the region, bringing cool and dry conditions to start the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM Wednesday...

A band of MVFR ceilings, in continued moist, nnely flow over ern NC
and sern VA, may edge swwd and across RWI for several hours later
this morning. Otherwise, nly surface winds will strengthen with
daytime heating and may gust at times mainly between 13-18Z at the
ern three TAF sites.

Outlook: Canadian high pressure will favor VFR conditions in cntl
NC as it builds across and offshore the Middle Atlantic Thu through
Sat. A chance of showers and flight restrictions will result ahead
of and along a cold front that will move across the area late Sun
and Sun night.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...MWS