Chapel Hill, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

271
FXUS62 KRAH 242350
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
750 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Thursday, Thursday night, Friday trending drier

* Saturday trending slightly wetter

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

1) Some CAD erosion this afternoon, with scattered convection
possible through the overnight period

2) Moist and muggy through mid week with high probabilities for
precipitation

3) Thursday will be a transition day from muggy conditions to cooler
weather for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Some CAD erosion this afternoon, with scattered
convection possible through the overnight period

Starting to see thinning of the wedge cloud deck this afternoon with
locations generally along and east of US-1 reaching the mid to upper
70s.  Further southeast, sea-breeze induced forcing along with
convergence along the leading edge of the CAD boundary has triggered
convection in the MHX and ILM CWAs.  The Cu field is deepening in
the southern Coastal Plain, and some isolated to scattered
convection is likely to initiate over the next several hours.  This
convection will generally retreat northward along the CAPE gradient
through early evening. Poor lapse rates and weak shear will preclude
any concerning storms. Convection should peter out with sunset. An
additional wave of showers associated with an MCV trekking through
Alabama this afternoon will be possible tonight. Highest chances
will be across the western piedmont with this wave of showers. Any
lingering showers should diminish through sunrise.

Stratus will sock back in tonight, and some lowering of the cloud
base may lead to patchy fog similar to recent mornings.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Warm and unseasonably humid/muggy through mid-week,
with above average chances of rain/convection

While the wedge that plagued central North Carolina on Saturday and
Sunday will have moved to the north by Monday, a stationary front
will remain along the length of the Ohio River and then extending
south along the Mississippi River. In addition, the Bermuda high
will continue to provide southerly moist flow across the
southeastern United States. The combination of the stationary front
and the flow will remain as a focus for showers and thunderstorms
through the first half of the week. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday
are all expected to be mostly cloudy with showers and isolated
thunderstorms, although it will not rain continuously. There is low
predictability as to when particular impulses will move along the
front and increase the chance of rain locally. Unlike this weekend,
where the wedge kept stable air across the area and there was
minimal thunderstorm coverage, there should be greater thunderstorm
coverage during the week, although a lack of shear this far away
from the front should prevent any thunderstorms from becoming
severe. Highs will generally be in the 80s.


KEY MESSAGE 3... Trending milder and progressively drier, with
respect to both humidity and rain chances late week into next weekend

Thursday appears likely to be the warmest day out of the next seven,
although the forecast has been trending drier that day with the
portion of the stationary front along the Ohio River finally
beginning to drop to the south. Thursday night and Friday should be
the driest 24 hour period in the next week, but after that, the
front will then become hung up over South Carolina during the
weekend. Being on the cooler side of the front, highs on Saturday
and Sunday should only be in the 70s. The rain chances will increase
for Saturday and Sunday, particularly across southern counties
closer to the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 750 PM Sunday...

Through 00Z Tuesday: The sea breeze boundary continues to move NW
fairly quickly this evening and has nearly reached RDU.  Isold to
scat showers along that boundary have decreased substantially in
coverage the past hour, with VFR conditions now across all of
central NC, including the Triad.  Meanwhile sfc dwpts have steadily
increasing across central NC from SE to NW during the past several
hours, so look for flt conditions to quickly fall back to MVFR after
sunset, then IFR or lower by midnight with stratus developing across
much of central NC.  Look for cigs to only gradually improve between
12-16Z Monday, perhaps becoming low-VFR by afternoon.  However by
then, another round of scattered showers/tstms are expected, which
may locally reduce flt conditions at times.

Outlook: Daily chances for showers and storms will continue through
the period, along with morning fog or stratus. While still
uncertain, there is perhaps a signal for drier weather to return
Friday into next weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 25: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 71/2019 KFAY: 71/2019

May 26: KGSO: 70/2019 KRDU: 73/2011 KFAY: 75/2004

May 27: KGSO: 72/1991 KRDU: 72/1991 KFAY: 72/2006

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchetti/Green
AVIATION...np
CLIMATE...RAH